| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Russia | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Trump (3+ times) | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Venezuela | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Escort / Escorted / Escorting | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Inflation | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Iran / Iranian | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which of eleven predefined statements or topics Chris Wright will make during his appearance on Face the Nation. The outcome matters because specific wording or topic selection can influence public reaction and related markets or coverage.
Face the Nation is a high-profile news interview program where guests often respond to recent developments, making remarks that can shape narratives. This market converts the range of possible on-air comments into discrete outcomes so traders can express expectations about what Wright will say. Because the market offers 11 outcomes, it captures a set of mutually exclusive statements or topic buckets laid out in the event description.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s real-time expectation about which outcome will be observed and will move as new information appears before or during the interview. To interpret movement, compare changes in prices to contemporaneous news (e.g., previews, leaked talking points, host announced topics) rather than treating prices as fixed forecasts.
Settlement will follow the exchange’s announced event rules and rely on the designated authoritative source (for example, an official transcript or the program’s recording). Check the event page for the listed settlement source and any post-broadcast adjudication procedures.
The event description defines each outcome; some outcomes may require verbatim wording while others are broader topic matches. Review the outcome definitions on the market page to see whether exact phrasing is required.
Whether paraphrase counts depends on the settlement criteria specified for the event. If the market requires exact wording it will not count paraphrase; if it allows topical matches it might. Consult the event’s settlement rules or contact the exchange for clarification before trading.
Resolution depends on the market’s mutually exclusive outcome structure and any tie-breaking rules. Some markets allow only one winning outcome even if multiple are addressed; others specify how to handle multi-topic answers. Check the event’s definitions and settlement policy.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD; monitor the market page for updates from the exchange. During the interview, watch the host’s opening question, any pre-broadcast previews or leaks, press statements from Wright’s team, and whether the discussion shifts toward breaking news — these signals typically move expectations most quickly.