| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional biomass | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Coal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hydropower | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wind | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Solar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Other renewables | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Modern biofuels | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which primary energy source will be the single largest contributor to global primary energy consumption in 2030. The outcome matters because it encapsulates expectations about the pace of the energy transition, future emissions trajectories, and investment risks across fuels and technologies.
Historically, fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) have supplied the bulk of global primary energy, while renewable sources and nuclear have grown more rapidly in percentage terms in recent years. Policy commitments (net-zero targets, subsidies, carbon pricing), technology cost declines (solar, wind, batteries), and economic growth patterns—especially in Asia and other emerging markets—are major contextual drivers that will shape the 2030 mix.
Market prices on this multi-outcome Kalshi event reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new information arrives. They are a real-time signal of market beliefs, not a deterministic forecast, and should be used alongside fundamental data and official statistics.
This event lists 10 distinct outcomes, each representing a candidate primary energy source. The market page shows the exact labeled options (for example categories commonly include oil, coal, natural gas, various renewable groupings, nuclear, hydro, bioenergy, and others), so check the contract for the precise outcome names.
The market's closing time is listed as TBD; consult the Kalshi market page for any announced close date and time. Settlement will occur after relevant 2030 primary energy data become available and in accordance with the market's published settlement rules.
The contract specifies the authoritative data source and measurement basis (primary energy). That source is listed on the market terms—common sources include international energy agencies or national statistical agencies—so review the market's official settlement documentation to see which dataset will be used.
Historical trends provide context—fossil fuels have dominated historically while renewables have grown fastest in recent years—but past trajectory does not guarantee 2030 outcomes. Use trend data to understand momentum and structural factors, and combine that with current policy, investment, and technology signals.
Watch major policy announcements (new subsidies, carbon taxes, or mandates), large-scale project milestones (major renewable buildouts, new LNG capacity), industry production decisions (OPEC/OPEC+ changes, producer cutbacks), authoritative forecast updates from agencies, and unexpected demand shocks or geopolitical events.