| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pentagon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AGI / Artificial General Intelligence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Warfare | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ideology / Ideological | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amicus | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Claude | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Truth Social | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hegseth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Security Clearance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Woke / DEI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Surveillance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lethal / Fatal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Autonomous | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Classified | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| APA / Administrative Procedure Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which words, phrases, or claims will be made on the record during the hearing in Anthropic vs Department of War. It matters because testimony and statements at the hearing can shape legal outcomes, public perception, and subsequent policy or commercial responses.
Anthropic is a private AI company and the Department of War (as named in this event) represents the government side of a legal or oversight dispute; the hearing will likely address contested technical, contractual, or national-security issues. Prior filings, briefs, and any pre-hearing motions set the framework for topics that are likely to be discussed, while new evidence or witness testimony can introduce unexpected lines of argument.
Prediction market prices reflect community expectations about which statements will appear on the public record at the hearing, not a legal ruling. Use prices as a real-time signal of market consensus while relying on official transcripts and rulings for authoritative records.
Outcomes are defined by the market's pre-set list of specific words, phrases, or categorical statements that appear on the official record during the hearing; only spoken or formally submitted on-the-record statements (transcript, stenographer, or official video) count toward settlement.
Key speakers typically include Anthropic representatives (executives or counsel), the Department of War's officials or counsel, called expert witnesses, and any government or independent witnesses permitted to testify; judge or hearing officer clarifications can also generate relevant statements.
Settlement relies on published, verifiable records such as the official transcript, court reporter notes, certified video, or other documentary records cited by the market's adjudicator; informal or off-the-record remarks are generally excluded unless incorporated into the official record.
No: this market focuses on what is said during the hearing itself. Pre-hearing filings or external press statements do not satisfy the on-the-record hearing requirement unless read into the hearing record by an authorized speaker.
If the market has fixed outcome choices, only listed outcomes are used for settlement; unexpected testimony may influence trading and future markets but will only affect settlement if the exact phrasing matches a listed outcome or the market rules provide a catch-all category.