| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haitian Centers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Child / Children | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Refugee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deport / Deportation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Due Process | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| National Security | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sanctuary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Checkpoint | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Border Patrol | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Prison / Jail | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Capacity | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Birthright | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which Supreme Court justices make particular public statements during the oral argument on a case about asylum seekers; it matters because justices' remarks reveal legal reasoning and can shape expectations about how the Court views key issues in asylum law.
The Supreme Court periodically resolves disputes about asylum standards, agency deference, and procedural protections after lower courts and appellate bodies issue conflicting rulings. Oral argument is the public moment when justices question counsel and articulate concerns; those exchanges are recorded in the official transcript and attract attention from lawyers, advocates, and policymakers. This market isolates the content of justices' spoken remarks as a basis for trading outcomes.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about which justices will say specified things during the hearing; they should be read as crowd signals about likely public statements rather than as definitive predictions of final votes or written opinions.
The Supreme Court posts argument dates on its calendar; the hearing date is set by the Court and determines when justices will speak. The market's close time is labeled TBD on the platform—check the event page or platform rules for the definitive close relative to the hearing (commonly at argument start or when outcomes can be objectively determined).
Outcomes rely on public remarks made aloud by sitting justices during the official oral argument session as captured in the Court's transcript or the platform's designated record. Private bench conferences, deliberations, chambers statements, and post-argument written opinions are excluded unless the market rules explicitly include them.
Each outcome corresponds to a scripted definition listed on the market (for example, a named justice asking a question on a specific issue or making a particular type of remark). Consult the platform's outcome descriptions and settlement rules for the exact wording used to identify which utterances qualify for each outcome.
No—settlement is governed by the market's scope, which for this event is the justices' spoken words during the hearing. Subsequent written opinions, dissents, or interviews are separate and do not retroactively change what was said during oral argument unless the market explicitly states otherwise.
Look at past immigration and asylum arguments to see which justices tend to ask detailed statutory or administrative-law questions, which focus on factual credibility, and which emphasize precedent or policy implications. Prior questioning styles and prior votes in related cases provide context about likely areas of concern but do not determine exact phrasing or final decisions.