| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| South Carolina | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nevada | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michigan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Georgia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Illinois | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Delaware | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| North Carolina | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tennessee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Virginia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Mexico | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which state will hold the first official nominating contest in the 2028 Democratic primary. The identity of the first state matters because early contests shape candidate momentum, media attention, and campaign resource allocation.
Historically, a small set of states have held the earliest Democratic contests, but the order has shifted over time as the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has revised calendar rules and states have moved dates. States and state parties can pass laws or set schedules to try to secure earlier slots, and the DNC can approve, discourage, or penalize such moves, so the early-state lineup can change in the lead-up to 2028.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which state will be scheduled or hold the first Democratic contest in 2028 and will update as official calendars, state decisions, and party rulings occur. Treat market odds as a real-time summary of those expectations rather than a fixed prediction.
The market will use the first officially held and certified nominating contest for the Democratic Party in 2028 as recognized by the relevant authorities and consistent with the event’s resolution rules; check the market page for the platform’s precise resolution criteria.
Resolution will occur once the event that qualifies as the first Democratic nominating contest in 2028 is held and officially certified, or when the platform applies its stated resolution policy (for example, after an official calendar announcement); consult the market’s rules for exact timing and conditions.
If the DNC publishes an official calendar or grants waivers that designate an early state or sequence, market expectations will typically update immediately to reflect that authoritative guidance, because the party’s calendar is a primary determinant of the official order of contests.
Yes—if multiple states hold their Democratic contests on the same date, the market’s resolution depends on the platform’s tie-handling rules and whether the market includes multi-state outcomes; check the market rules for how simultaneous contests are treated.
State legislative changes to primary dates, executive scheduling decisions by governors, state party choices about caucuses versus primaries, court decisions, or formal DNC approvals or sanctions can each alter which state ends up voting first.