| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| France | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hungary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greece | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU; it matters because such votes can change membership, reshape regional politics, and affect trade and investment expectations.
Referenda on EU membership are rare but consequential; the 2016 UK referendum is the best-known example and reshaped both UK and EU policy. Political fragmentation, the rise of euroskeptic parties in some member states, and evolving public sentiment mean the possibility of more membership referenda remains a live policy issue.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about which countries will call and hold a national referendum that asks voters whether to leave the EU. Price moves reflect new information and changing assessments, not guarantees of outcomes.
For settlement purposes this refers to an officially announced and legally recognized national referendum that asks voters whether the country should leave the EU. Local or regional ballots, parliamentary votes without a public referendum, or advisory consultations that are not formally presented as a national leave-or-stay referendum typically do not meet that threshold. Consult the contract's official settlement terms for the definitive rule.
The market outcomes are the specific countries listed on the event page plus any labelled options such as 'none' or 'other'. Check the market's outcome list on the platform to see which countries or outcome labels were included when the contract was created.
A referendum only qualifies if it occurs before the contract's official settlement date and time. 'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet published the contract's final close or settlement timestamp, so traders should monitor the market page and platform announcements for the precise cutoff.
Elections can change which parties control government and thus the appetite or ability to call a referendum. A new government with a referendum pledge, or a coalition that depends on euroskeptic partners, increases the political pathway to a vote; conversely, stable pro-EU governments reduce near-term chances.
Contracts are generally fixed at creation and outcomes are not added after launch. If an error occurred in the listing or settlement rules, the platform may intervene according to its error and cancellation policies. Always review the market's official rules and announcements for any adjustments.