| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will cease to be President of Ukraine. The question matters because any change in Ukraine's presidency would have major implications for domestic governance, wartime strategy, and international support.
Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 and has been Ukraine's wartime leader since the large-scale invasion beginning in 2022, making his position a focal point of both domestic politics and foreign policy. Ukraine's constitution and political institutions set out multiple paths for a president to leave office—voluntary resignation, impeachment, incapacitation, death, or defeat in an election—while wartime dynamics and foreign backing can affect those processes.
Market prices aggregate traders' judgments about the likelihood of the event given current information and will move as news and risks change. Always read the specific contract text to understand exactly what outcomes and timeframes are being traded.
Contract wording determines the definition; many markets treat any official cessation of holding the presidency—resignation, impeachment/removal, incapacitation, death, or sworn replacement after an election—as 'out,' but you must check the contract for exclusions or required evidence.
Temporary delegation or short absences that do not terminate the presidency typically do not count; the distinction depends on whether the contract requires permanent removal or any cessation of duties, so consult the market's settlement rules.
Removal can occur via voluntary resignation, the constitutional impeachment process handled by the Verkhovna Rada and constitutional/legal review, formal incapacity determinations, death, or through the outcome of scheduled elections; wartime conditions can complicate how these processes function in practice.
Significant battlefield setbacks or successes can shift public sentiment, coalition cohesion, and the calculations of political elites and international backers, thereby increasing or decreasing the likelihood of voluntary departure, forced removal, or retained support.
A post-election transfer of power that results in him no longer holding office would typically meet an 'out' condition, but confirm whether the market covers scheduled electoral turnover versus only premature or extraordinary removals.