| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 58.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 62.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 64.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 66.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 68.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what portion of Tether's USDT reserves will be held in US Treasury bills at the end of 2026. It matters because the composition of reserves affects perceived credit and liquidity risk for one of the largest stablecoins and signals how issuers manage safety versus yield.
Tether has historically held a mix of short-term and longer-dated instruments, cash equivalents, and other assets; disclosure practices and attestations have evolved in response to regulatory and market pressure. The choice to hold T-bills reflects a tradeoff between liquidity, perceived safety, and yield, and can shift with macroeconomic conditions, policy decisions, and stablecoin flows.
Market odds are an aggregate, continuously updated indicator of traders' expectations about which reserve-share outcome will occur by the end of 2026. They provide a realtime signal that responds to new data and events but are not a guarantee of the final reserve composition.
It measures the fraction of the total assets reported as backing USDT that are held specifically in US Treasury bills as of the final reserve report or attestation covering the end of 2026, comparing T-bill holdings to the issuer's reported aggregate reserves.
Tether publishes periodic reserve disclosures and may provide third-party attestations; traders treat these reports as primary inputs but also consider timing, limited audit scope, and any accompanying notes when assessing credibility.
Key movers include shifts in short-term interest rates, episodes of banking or market stress that alter liquidity preferences, regulatory interventions affecting permissible reserve assets, and large-scale USDT issuance or redemption events.
Each outcome corresponds to a range for the T-bill share at the end of 2026; choose based on your scenario view of the key factors—assess how policy, yield, flows, and disclosures evolve—and manage exposure across buckets if uncertain.
Markets typically react quickly to credible policy changes or new attestations; the magnitude and persistence of price moves depend on the detail and credibility of the disclosure, whether it is forward-looking or retrospective, and how it alters traders' expectations about future reserve composition.