| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 360000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 365000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 370000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 367500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 357500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 352500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 355000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 362500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the typical (median/representative) value of a US home will be in March 2026; it matters because housing values influence household wealth, borrowing costs, and broader economic activity.
The US housing market has seen pronounced shifts since the pandemic driven by changing demand, supply constraints, and monetary policy; regional dispersion and affordability pressures have been important themes. March 2026 sits after several years of adjustment to higher interest rates and evolving construction activity, so the result will reflect both recent trends and any policy or economic shocks that occur before that date.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the reported index/value that will be published for March 2026; interpret them as a continuously updating consensus signal, not a guarantee of the outcome.
The market close time is set on the Kalshi contract page (listed as TBD here); settlement will occur after the designated official data release or index publication specified in the contract, so check the market details for the exact close and settlement schedule.
The contract description on the market page specifies the exact definition (e.g., median, typical, or index value), the units (dollars), and the authoritative data source or index used for settlement; review that specification before trading.
The eight outcomes correspond to discrete value ranges for the US typical home value in March 2026 as defined by the contract; each outcome resolves true if the published value falls inside that outcome's specified range—see the market page for the precise range boundaries.
Look at the historical series for the specific index named in the contract across multiple years (to observe trend and seasonality), recent monthly movements, mortgage rate history, housing starts and permits, inventory of for-sale homes, and regional dispersion patterns that feed into the national measure.
Key items include Federal Reserve policy meetings and interest-rate guidance, monthly inflation (CPI/PCE) and employment reports, housing data releases (existing home sales, housing starts, new-home sales), major fiscal or housing policy announcements, and any large-scale shocks (natural disasters, financial stress) that affect mortgage markets or supply.