| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 45 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45 billion to 54.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55 billion to 64.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65 billion to 74.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75 billion to 84.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85 billion to 94.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95 billion to 104.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 105 billion to 119.5 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 120 billion to 139.9 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 140 billion to 170 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 170 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which reported value will be recorded as the US goods and services trade deficit for calendar year 2026; it matters because the annual trade balance influences growth, inflation, currency moves, and policy discussions.
Historically the US trade deficit fluctuates with relative domestic and foreign demand, the dollar, and energy prices; annual totals are compiled from monthly trade reports and may be revised after initial publication. Market participants use these contracts to express views on how 2026 economic and policy developments will translate into the official annual trade balance.
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s view about which official annual trade-balance outcome will be reported for 2026; they are dynamic signals that update as new data and news arrive.
Resolution depends on the official US government reporting schedule: the annual total is finalized only after December trade data and any subsequent routine revisions, so the contract will resolve once the specified official annual figure for 2026 is published according to the market’s rules.
The contract is settled using the official US government publication specified in the market terms—typically the Bureau of Economic Analysis/Census Bureau combined trade statistics for the annual goods and services balance—so consult the contract rules for the exact source and series.
The market follows the settlement rule in the contract: if settlement uses the initially published annual total, later revisions will not change the result; if settlement uses the final annual figure after revisions, the revised value will determine the outcome—check the event terms for the resolution convention.
News that alters expectations for year‑end import or export volumes—such as a domestic recession, a surge or drop in oil prices, large trade-policy announcements, major natural disasters disrupting trade, or sudden foreign demand swings—will materially shift prices for this contract.
Participants include macro traders, economists, commodity traders, policy-focused speculators, and informed retail traders; liquidity and price moves often reflect a combination of news-driven trading, model-driven arbitrage, and portfolio hedging strategies.