| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $80 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $100 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $125 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $150 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $200 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $250 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined revenue range the U.S. government will report as tariff (customs duties) receipts for calendar year 2026. It matters because tariff receipts reflect trade policy, import activity, and can affect fiscal projections and trade debates.
Tariff revenue is driven by the combination of tariff rates set by policy, the volume and composition of imports, and enforcement/collection practices. Historically revenue has moved with major policy shifts, trade disputes, economic cycles, and changes in import prices and composition. Market participants follow these drivers because they influence how much the Treasury ultimately collects in duties.
Market prices summarize the collective expectations of traders about which revenue bucket will be realized in 2026; price movements reflect new information about policy, trade flows, and macro conditions. Prices are dynamic—use them as a real-time indicator of market views, not as guaranteed outcomes.
Settlement uses the official annual figure for customs duties (tariffs) recorded for calendar year 2026 as specified in the market contract—typically drawn from official federal fiscal reports identified by the market operator (for example, Treasury or Bureau of the Fiscal Service publications).
Each outcome represents a predefined revenue bucket. When the authoritative official figure for 2026 is published, the market operator maps that number into the corresponding bucket per the contract and settles the winning outcome.
Resolution will occur after the official annual tariff receipts for calendar year 2026 are published and the market operator confirms the source and figure. Because official annual reporting typically follows the end of the calendar year, expect settlement once the designated federal report is released and verified.
Primary sources for tariff receipts are federal fiscal reports such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s monthly/annual statements (Bureau of the Fiscal Service) and collection data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection; the specific authoritative source is listed in the market’s contract.
Announcements or implementations of tariff rate changes, new trade agreements or tariffs, major antidumping or safeguard measures, abrupt shifts in import volumes from supply‑chain disruptions or large swings in global demand, and significant enforcement or classification changes would all materially alter expectations because they change the taxable import base or rates.