| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50 GWdc | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 40 GWdc | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 45 GWdc | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 55 GWdc | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 35 GWdc | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which bucket of new solar capacity will be recorded as installed in the United States during calendar year 2026. It matters because annual installation totals are a key indicator of technology deployment, industry health, and progress toward decarbonization goals.
U.S. solar additions have grown rapidly over the past decade, driven by cost declines, tax incentives, and increasing utility and corporate procurement. Installation totals reflect a mix of utility-scale projects, distributed rooftop systems, supply‑chain constraints, permitting and interconnection timelines, and policy drivers that can accelerate or delay completions.
Market prices on this event summarize traders' collective expectations about which outcome bucket will be the realized 2026 installed capacity; consult the event description for the specific resolution criteria and authoritative data source that will be used to settle the market.
Settlement will follow the resolution language on the event page; that language specifies the authoritative data source and the unit of measurement (for example, whether it includes both utility‑scale and distributed capacity and whether values are reported in MWac or MWdc). Traders should check the event page for the exact source and measurement that will be used to determine the outcome.
The five discrete outcomes correspond to the labeled capacity ranges listed on this event's market page. Exact numeric boundaries and any rounding rules are provided in the event description; consult that description before trading to confirm which range a projected installation total falls into.
Key releases include monthly and annual reports from agencies and industry groups (for example, EIA data releases, industry thought‑leader reports, and quarterly market updates), as well as state interconnection reports and major corporate procurement announcements. Final official tallies for a calendar year are often compiled and published in the months after year‑end, so watch late‑2026 and early‑2027 publications for settlement information.
Monitor implementation guidance for federal incentives, changes to tax credit eligibility or timing, new tariffs or trade measures affecting modules, state‑level incentive changes, interconnection reform decisions, and any emergency measures that expedite or delay project completion. Regulatory clarifications or funding allocations can materially affect project pipelines and completion timing.
Use prior annual installation totals, module shipment and production statistics, interconnection queue volumes, announced project pipelines, and recent project‑by‑project completion rates to form a baseline expectation. Adjust that baseline for changes in policy, supply, finance availability, and any large announced projects or cancellations that alter the likelihood of projects being completed within the 2026 calendar year.