| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 423.2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 423.6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 424.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 424.4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 424.8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market offers trading on which outcome will describe the US shelter component of the Consumer Price Index for March 2026; shelter is a large part of CPI and materially influences inflation readings that affect financial markets and policy decisions.
Shelter CPI measures changes in the cost of housing services, primarily rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent, and is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) every month. Since the pandemic, shelter has been a major driver of headline inflation and has shown persistent regional variation; trends in rents, home prices, and mortgage rates all feed into the March 2026 observation. Market participants will weigh both recent micro data (rental listings, local vacancy rates) and macro developments (labor market, interest rates) when forming views.
Odds in this market represent the aggregated beliefs of participants about which outcome will be realized for the March 2026 shelter CPI; they evolve as new data and news arrive and are not the same as the official BLS release.
The BLS releases monthly CPI data roughly a month after the reference month, and publication timing follows the official BLS schedule; the market's close time is set by the platform (currently listed as TBD), so check the market page for the exact close relative to the BLS release.
Shelter in CPI primarily comprises rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent (OER), which reflect tenant rent payments and the implicit rent homeowners would pay themselves; these are aggregated and seasonally adjusted in the BLS CPI shelter series.
Look at recent month-to-month trends, the relative contributions of rent versus OER, and the magnitude of any recent revisions or breaks in trend; past behavior helps set a baseline but short-term rental market shocks and methodological changes can alter outcomes.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the CPI and the shelter component; while monthly CPI data are typically final at release, the BLS can make revisions in the context of methodological changes, benchmarking, or error corrections, and seasonal factors are updated periodically.
Monitor timely indicators such as private rent tracker reports, apartment listing rent indices, weekly mortgage rate movements, regional housing commencements and sales, and labor/income releases — any of these can shift expectations about March shelter inflation before the market closes.