| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. Census Bureau will report retail sales for February 2026. The monthly retail sales print is a high-frequency indicator of consumer demand and can influence markets and policy expectations.
The Census Bureau publishes a Monthly Retail Trade Report that tracks receipts at physical and online retailers and food services; markets and policymakers use it to gauge consumer spending trends between GDP releases. Retail sales are sensitive to employment, inflation, interest rates, seasonal patterns, and one-off events such as weather or large promotional periods.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective expectations about where the official February 2026 retail sales number will land relative to the contract's defined outcomes. Check the contract terms to see exactly which published Census series (e.g., seasonally adjusted or not) the market uses for settlement.
Settlement will occur based on the official Census Bureau publication for February 2026 retail sales and according to the platform's settlement rules; the Census release for a given month typically appears in the month after the reference month, but consult the market page for the platform-specific close and settlement timing.
The contract specifies which published Census series is used (for example, the headline monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted or not); always check the market's contract details to confirm the exact series and any adjustments used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined range or category tied to the published retail sales number; after the Census release, the outcome whose range contains the reported figure is the winning outcome—see the contract description for the exact bin boundaries.
Settlement rules vary by market: some contracts settle on the initial published figure, others on a specified revised figure or on the Census series value published on a particular revision date; consult the market's settlement rules to know which version governs this contract.
Watch high-frequency spending signals (credit/debit transaction aggregates), major retailers' sales announcements, weekly consumer indicators, recent labor-market reports, inflation releases, and short-term weather forecasts or supply-chain headlines that could alter February spending patterns.