| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the monthly percentage change in US personal consumption expenditures for March 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This metric is a primary gauge of consumer demand and provides critical insight into the overall health of the US economy.
Personal spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of US gross domestic product, making it a closely watched indicator for market participants and policymakers. Historical data reflects how households balance inflation pressures, wage growth, and interest rate environments. Periodic revisions to this data are common, and traders must focus on the initial release figures typically published in late April 2026.
The prices in this market reflect the collective expectations of participants regarding the direction and magnitude of consumer spending shifts. A higher price for a specific range indicates that the market consensus anticipates the official government data will fall within those bounds.
The market settles based on the Personal Income and Outlays report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the reference month of March 2026.
No, the market settles based on the initial 'advance' estimate released by the BEA, regardless of any future statistical revisions.
The metric tracks nominal spending, meaning it includes the effect of price changes; higher inflation can sometimes inflate the spending number even if the volume of goods purchased remains flat.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis typically releases the data for a given month toward the end of the following month, in this case, late April 2026.
The market utilizes the official figures as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis according to their methodology in effect at the time of the release.