| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the monthly percentage change in US personal consumption expenditures for February 2026, a key gauge of consumer demand. It serves as a vital barometer for the overall health of the American economy.
Personal spending accounts for the majority of US economic activity, making this data point a primary focus for the Federal Reserve when assessing inflation and growth. Analysts monitor this metric to understand how households are reacting to prevailing interest rates, labor market conditions, and overall fiscal sentiment. Significant deviations from consensus expectations can influence monetary policy outlooks and financial market volatility.
The market prices represent the collective expectation of where the monthly growth rate will settle, with higher values clustering around the consensus forecasts derived from economic modeling.
The official outcome is determined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 'Personal Income and Outlays' report for February 2026.
The BEA usually releases this data toward the end of the following month, typically in late March 2026.
This market tracks nominal personal consumption expenditures as reported in the headline monthly change figure.
The BEA applies seasonal adjustments to account for recurring events like holiday spending or weather patterns, which are already factored into the headline MoM number.
The market is settled based on the initial headline release; subsequent revisions by the BEA do not change the settled outcome.