| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the monthly percentage change in US personal income for March 2026, a key indicator of consumer financial health. It measures the total income received by all persons from all sources, serving as a vital barometer for economic growth and spending potential.
Personal income data is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflationary pressures and consumer demand. Trends in this metric are influenced by shifts in wage growth, government transfer payments, and income from interest or dividends. Significant deviations from consensus expectations can trigger volatility in equity and bond markets.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of where the final BEA report will land within specified intervals, allowing participants to hedge or speculate on the momentum of the US economy.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the official source for this data release.
This market tracks nominal personal income as reported in the monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays release.
This market typically settles based on the initial 'first print' release from the BEA, regardless of subsequent revisions.
March data often captures the transition out of Q1, providing critical insight into the durability of consumer spending entering the second quarter.
While inflation affects real purchasing power, nominal personal income may still rise due to cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) or wage increases intended to match rising prices.