| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity (year-over-year) will exceed 3% in at least one quarter of 2026. The result matters because large productivity swings influence GDP growth, inflationary pressure, wage prospects, and monetary-policy assessments.
Nonfarm productivity measures output per hour for the nonfarm business sector and is published quarterly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Short-term YoY productivity rates can be volatile, shaped by cyclical output and hours worked, capital investment, technology adoption, and occasional measurement revisions.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about the likelihood that any 2026 quarter will report YoY productivity above 3% and will move as new data and news arrive. Use these prices alongside fundamentals (output, hours, investment, revisions) rather than as the sole signal.
Resolution uses the BLS-reported nonfarm business sector labor productivity (output per hour) year-over-year figure for each 2026 quarter; if any quarter's published YoY value exceeds 3%, the event meets the stated condition, subject to the market's settlement rules.
That depends on the market's settlement rule for this contract; the underlying statistic is the BLS-published productivity figure for the quarter, but whether later revisions affect settlement is specified by the market's rulebook.
All four calendar quarters of 2026 (Q1–Q4) are eligible; if the BLS-published YoY for any one of those quarters is above 3%, the condition is met, per the market's defined settlement procedure.
A strong output surge with only modest increases in hours worked (for example, rapid GDP growth driven by productivity-enhancing investment or widespread technology adoption), or pronounced positive base effects following a weak prior-year quarter.
BLS seasonal adjustments, benchmark revisions, changes in the composition of employment or output, and one-off events that depress or boost hours or output can alter the reported YoY rate; these technical factors can move a quarter above or below the 3% mark independent of persistent productivity trends.