| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -90K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -70K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -50K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -30K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -10K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 110K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 130K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 150K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 170K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 190K | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many nonfarm payroll jobs the US economy will add or lose in March 2026 according to the BLS release; it matters because the headline payroll change is a key gauge of labor-market strength and can move financial markets and policy expectations.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the monthly Employment Situation report, which includes the headline nonfarm payrolls number drawn from the establishment survey. March is the first full-month reading for many quarterly trends and comes amid ongoing monitoring of inflation, labor supply, and central bank policy decisions. Historical March reports can show seasonal hiring patterns and respond to shocks such as severe weather, strikes, or large-scale corporate adjustments.
Market prices represent aggregated trader expectations for which of the discrete outcomes will match the official BLS headline for March 2026; prices update as new data and news arrive and should be read as the market’s consensus view at any given time.
The official number is published in the BLS Employment Situation release, which is typically issued on the first Friday after the reference month at 8:30 AM ET; this market uses the official BLS headline number published at that release time to determine settlement.
The market’s 15 outcomes partition the possible BLS headline values into mutually exclusive outcome bins (e.g., ranges or discrete values) defined in the market description; traders should consult the market page for the precise bin boundaries before trading.
Settlement is based on the headline nonfarm payrolls figure from the BLS establishment (payroll) survey as published in the Employment Situation release; other series such as household employment are not used for settlement unless explicitly stated.
This market settles on the BLS headline number as published at the official release time specified by the market rules; subsequent BLS revisions published in later months do not retroactively change settlement unless the market’s rules explicitly state otherwise.
Monitor weekly initial jobless claims, the ADP private payrolls report, ISM or manufacturing releases, large employer hiring or layoff announcements, strike developments, and significant weather events — any of these can materially shift traders’ expectations for the March payrolls outcome.