| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $29.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $29.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $29.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $29.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $29.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $30.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $30.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $30.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $30.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $30.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $31.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $31.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $31.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $31.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $31.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $32.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $32.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $32.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $32.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $32.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $33.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal dollar value the United States economy will register in calendar year 2026; it matters because nominal GDP combines real output and the price level, influencing fiscal planning, markets, and policy debates.
Nominal GDP measures the total market value of final goods and services at current prices and differs from real GDP by including inflation. Historical annual nominal GDP has moved with a combination of real growth and inflation; entrants to this market will be weighing 2026 developments in output, prices, and policy. The market offers 21 mutually exclusive outcomes representing different nominal-GDP ranges or values, and the event page lists settlement rules and sources.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the official 2026 nominal GDP release; interpret price movements as evolving consensus driven by new data, policy changes, and liquidity rather than as immutable forecasts.
Settlement is based on the official annual nominal GDP figure specified in the market's settlement rules—typically the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release and the vintage (advance/second/final) named on the event page—so check the event description for the authoritative source and vintage used for settlement.
The event page currently shows the market close as TBD; trading will stop at the close time listed on the market page, and settlement will occur after the specified official release is published and any waiting/verification period in the rules has elapsed—monitor the event page for final timestamps.
Whether revisions matter depends on the vintage named in the settlement rules: if settlement uses the BEA's initial annual estimate, later revisions typically do not change the outcome; if settlement uses a later or 'final' vintage, subsequent revisions beyond that vintage are generally irrelevant—confirm the exact vintage on the event page.
Key inputs include quarterly GDP releases, monthly PCE and CPI inflation reports, employment and payrolls, retail sales, industrial production, business investment indicators, and major fiscal or budget announcements—material surprises in any of these will alter odds for specific outcomes.
Participants often include macro funds, institutional economists and traders, hedgers (corporates and asset managers), and retail speculators; the mixture and depth of liquidity—reflected on the event page—affect how quickly prices incorporate new information.