| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 620,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 640,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 660,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 680,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 700,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 720,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 740,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined outcome will match the U.S. Census/HUD report for new single‑family home sales in March 2026. The reading is closely watched because new home sales are a timely indicator of housing demand and can influence financial markets and economic forecasts.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development publish this monthly series; March often marks the start of the spring selling season when activity can pick up. Recent trends in mortgage financing, inventory of new homes, construction activity, and broader macroeconomic conditions all shape the March reading.
Market odds represent the collective expectations about which contract outcome will match the official published figure and update as new information arrives. Always consult the contract description to see which exact data series and settlement rules the market uses.
The Census Bureau and HUD publish the official monthly new home sales report; the exact publication date is set by their release calendar. The market page lists the market's trading close time—check that page for the precise cutoff, since some markets close at or before the official release while others have a predetermined close time.
The contract description defines the settlement metric (for example, the Census/HUD new single‑family houses sales series and whether it is seasonally adjusted or an annualized rate). Review the contract terms on the market page to confirm the precise series, adjustment, and rounding rules used for settlement.
Compare March to recent monthly trends and the same month in prior years while accounting for normal seasonal swings and the possibility of revisions to past releases. Use leading indicators (permits, starts, builder surveys) to judge whether recent momentum is likely to persist into March.
Key moving pieces include changes in mortgage rates, weekly mortgage application flows, housing starts and building permits, the National Association of Home Builders/market builder sentiment surveys, major employment or inflation reports that affect financing costs, and any significant regional weather or supply‑chain disruptions.
Settlement follows the specific published figure and version specified in the contract terms. Some contracts settle on the initial published release while others specify a later vintage—check the market rules to see whether subsequent revisions would alter settlement.