| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| By 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether the United States will achieve the climate targets specified by the contract within its defined timeline. The outcome matters because it aggregates expectations about policy execution, emissions trends, and technological deployment that drive climate progress.
The United States has a history of setting national climate commitments—including near‑term emissions pledges and a long‑term net‑zero goal—while states, cities, and corporations pursue parallel targets. Federal policy actions, regulatory decisions, and recent climate-related legislation have accelerated clean energy deployment, but actual emissions and sectoral trends have varied year to year, and measurement relies on official inventories and reporting.
Prediction market odds here reflect the collective view of traders about whether the contract's specific goals and timeline will be met; they update as news and data arrive but are not guarantees of outcome. Always check the contract's resolution criteria and official sources referenced in the event description to interpret market movements.
The contract will use a specific definition and timeline stated in its terms—typically referring to whether the United States has achieved the named national targets by the contract's measurement date. Review the event description and resolution language to see which targets and data sources are binding for settlement.
Resolution timing depends on the contract's stated measurement date and the availability of the official data sources named in the terms. The market may remain open until those sources publish the relevant inventory or report; monitor the event page for updates to the closing or resolution schedule.
Common authoritative sources include the EPA's greenhouse gas inventory and official UNFCCC submissions, but the contract will list its designated sources. Settlement follows those named datasets or official statements specified in the event terms.
Key actors include the federal administration and Congress (through rulemaking and legislation), state governments and utilities implementing changes on the ground, major private‑sector emitters and investors, and courts that can affect implementation timelines.
Follow policy announcements (legislation, rulemakings), official data releases from EPA/DOE and UNFCCC, major legal rulings, sectoral deployment metrics (power generation mix, vehicle sales, industrial emissions programs), and updates on the market's event page for changes to resolution criteria or timelines.