| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $130 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $140 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $150 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $160 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $170 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $180 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $190 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $200 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $210 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $220 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the seasonally adjusted annual rate of US manufacturing construction spending for December 2026 as reported by the Census Bureau. It serves as a gauge for the long-term industrial capital investment cycle in the United States.
Manufacturing construction spending has seen significant volatility in recent years, driven by policy initiatives like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. These programs incentivized large-scale projects in semiconductors, clean energy, and battery production. Tracking this data helps analysts determine if the 'manufacturing renaissance' is entering a sustained growth phase or facing cyclical cooling.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of where the final Census Bureau reading will land relative to the specific dollar ranges provided in the outcomes.
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the monthly Value of Construction Put in Place report, which includes manufacturing construction spending.
It covers spending on structures for manufacturing facilities, such as food and beverage plants, chemical processing sites, and electronics factories.
The Census Bureau typically reports these figures in current dollars, reflecting the actual nominal spending recorded during that month.
Manufacturing is a specific sub-sector within the broader non-residential category, which also includes offices, retail, and healthcare facilities.
The Census Bureau usually releases this data in early February 2027, as it follows a standard monthly reporting lag.