| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 50.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 51.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 51.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 52.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 52.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 53.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 53.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 54.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 54.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 55.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 55.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 56.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 56.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 57.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2026, a critical gauge of economic activity in the US services sector. Because the service industry accounts for the vast majority of US GDP, this release is a primary indicator for investors gauging overall economic health and recession risks.
The ISM Services PMI is derived from a monthly survey of supply chain managers across various service industries, measuring variables like business activity, new orders, and employment. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Market participants closely watch these figures for insights into inflationary pressures and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts.
The range of outcomes represents different potential numeric levels for the index, allowing participants to forecast the specific strength or weakness of the US service economy during April 2026.
The official monthly report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) regarding the Services PMI for the reference month of April 2026.
Prediction markets typically rely on the 'headline' number reported in the initial release unless otherwise specified in the market rules.
An index reading of 50.0 is considered the threshold of no change; values above 50 indicate expansion, and values below 50 indicate contraction.
The Services PMI focuses on non-manufacturing industries like finance, retail, and healthcare, which constitute a much larger share of the US economy than the manufacturing sector.
The market resolves based on the ISM's official release for April 2026, which typically occurs during the first few business days of the following month.