| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before June | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before July | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before August | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before September | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will reach a negotiated nuclear agreement; it matters because such an outcome would affect international security, sanctions policy, and regional energy and financial markets.
The question builds on a decade of diplomacy beginning with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the U.S. withdrawal from that deal in 2018, and subsequent rounds of negotiations and pressures involving Iran, the United States, European intermediaries, and the IAEA. Since then, Iran’s nuclear capabilities, sanctions relief, verification access, and regional tensions have all shaped the negotiating landscape.
Market prices on this event reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about how likely each outcome is and will update as new diplomatic, technical, or political information appears. They are not official forecasts but real‑time summaries of how participants interpret unfolding developments.
The market’s three outcomes typically correspond to (1) a comprehensive or agreed deal between the U.S. and Iran that is publicly announced and includes core nuclear and verification elements, (2) a partial or interim agreement that involves limited, temporary, or phased measures, and (3) no agreement by the market’s resolution. Check the event page for the precise text used to resolve the contract.
A TBD close means there is no fixed expiration date posted yet; trading continues until the platform sets a close or the event is resolved according to the market’s published resolution criteria. Traders should monitor the event page for updates and any official resolution rules.
Clear signals include coordinated public announcements from the U.S. administration and Iranian government that a deal has been signed or formally agreed, implementing steps such as legal instruments or executive actions, and corroborating IAEA statements about agreed verification arrangements.
Sequencing matters because parties may agree to phased steps rather than immediate full implementation; markets typically look for concrete, verifiable actions tied to the event wording—such as a signed agreement, formal implementation measures, or IAEA-confirmed verification steps—rather than verbal commitments alone.
Follow official statements from the U.S. State Department, the Iranian foreign ministry, the IAEA, and key European intermediaries, plus announcements of formal agreements or legal instruments, credible reporting from established international outlets, and updates on the event page for any changes in resolution criteria.