| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $220 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $240 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $260 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $280 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Below $300 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the total annual value of goods imported into the United States from China for the 2026 calendar year. It serves as a barometer for the durability of bilateral trade flows amid shifting geopolitical and supply chain strategies.
The US-China trade relationship has undergone significant structural changes due to tariffs, trade wars, and a push toward 'de-risking' or 'near-shoring' supply chains. Historically, China has been the largest source of US goods imports, though recent years have seen increased diversification toward countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Analysts monitor these figures to assess the real-world impact of industrial policy and trade protectionism.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how trade policies, consumer demand, and macroeconomic stability will shape the physical volume of cross-border goods through 2026.
The market typically relies on data released by the U.S. Census Bureau or the Bureau of Economic Analysis regarding US-China goods trade balances.
This market is specific to physical 'goods' as categorized by official customs data; it excludes services like intellectual property, software, or financial consulting.
These tariffs influence the final import figures by either suppressing total import demand or inflating the reported customs value of goods entering the country.
Changes in executive administration often lead to shifts in trade enforcement and tariff structures, which serve as primary drivers for the realized import volume in this market.
The market tracks nominal import value reported by government agencies, which reflects the current dollar value of imports rather than constant-dollar volumes.