| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether reported U.S. imports originating from Iran will exceed $5 million during the 2026 calendar year. It matters because even small official trade flows can signal changes in sanctions enforcement, licensing policy, or commercial relationships between the two countries.
U.S.–Iran commercial ties have been heavily restricted for decades by sanctions, with occasional licensed exceptions for humanitarian goods, food, and medicine. Trade levels historically have been near-zero in official U.S. statistics, but policy shifts, licensing decisions, third‑country intermediaries, or changes in reporting can produce measurable imports in a given year.
Market prices/odds are a real‑time aggregation of participant views about whether official 2026 import statistics will show more than $5 million of imports from Iran; they update as new policy, enforcement, shipping, and reporting information arrives.
Resolution typically relies on official U.S. trade statistics for the calendar year in question (for example, merchandise import totals reported by U.S. government sources); consult the market's posted resolution criteria for the exact data source and treatment of revisions.
Official statistics usually record country of origin and country of shipment differently; re‑exports and transshipments can complicate attribution. The market’s resolution rules will state whether origin, shipment, or another field is used—check those rules and expect some ambiguity in cases of intermediated trade.
Yes. OFAC and other agencies sometimes issue licenses for humanitarian, medical, or agricultural transactions; coordinated licensed programs or a series of licensed shipments could produce measurable official imports if they are recorded in U.S. trade data.
U.S. merchandise import statistics are published monthly and compiled annually, but preliminary monthly figures can be revised. The market’s resolution policy will state whether it uses preliminary or final annual totals and how post-publication revisions are handled.
Watch official releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and Customs, Treasury/OFAC license announcements, major shipping and insurance news, AIS/ship‑tracker reports for vessels linked to Iranian exports, and trade press coverage of sanction waivers or enforcement actions.