| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.325M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.350M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.375M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.400M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.425M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.450M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.475M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.500M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the US Census Bureau will report housing starts for March 2026, a headline measure of new residential construction. Housing starts matter because they signal construction activity that affects GDP, employment, and demand for materials and financing.
The Census Bureau and HUD publish monthly housing starts as part of the residential construction data series; the March 2026 reading will be interpreted against recent trends in starts, permits, and mortgage conditions. In the past several years the series has been sensitive to shifts in interest rates, supply-chain constraints, and changes between single‑family and multi‑family construction.
Market odds on this platform represent the collective expectation for which discrete outcome will be realized when the official March 2026 number is released. Use those odds as a real‑time consensus signal that will update as new information (permits, rate moves, surveys) becomes available.
The Census Bureau publishes the monthly housing starts report on its scheduled release calendar, typically in the weeks after the month closes; the exact release date for March 2026 will appear on the Census/HUD release schedule. The market's close time is listed as TBD, so check the platform for the announced settlement timing and whether it closes before or after the official release.
The eight outcomes are discrete choices (usually ranges, bins, or categorical statements) that map to different possible official readings for March 2026. Review the outcome labels on the market page to see whether they correspond to numeric ranges, directional outcomes, or alternative categorizations.
Key pre-release indicators include building permits (especially single‑family permits), new‑home sales, NAHB/Wells Fargo builder sentiment, recent mortgage rate moves, regional permit updates, and high‑frequency macro data that affect demand—changes in these can alter expectations for the starts print.
Initial starts estimates rely on partial and survey‑based data; later updates incorporate additional survey responses, permit corrections, and seasonal adjustments, leading to revisions. Revisions can materially change the narrative around construction activity, so traders should consider the history of revisions and the relationship between permits and initial starts when forming views.
Policymakers (including the Federal Reserve), economists, homebuilders, suppliers, real estate investors, and lenders follow starts because the series signals future construction activity that influences GDP, employment in construction and related industries, commodity demand, and interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors of the economy.