| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 39.10 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.20 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.30 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.40 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.50 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.60 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.70 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.80 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.90 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40.00 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the official U.S. government debt outstanding will fall into on April 30, 2026 — an event that matters for fiscal policy, financial markets, and debt-servicing costs. Traders use it to express and aggregate expectations about near-term fiscal outcomes.
U.S. federal debt has trended upward in nominal terms over decades, driven by structural deficits, economic cycles, and episodic emergency spending; short-term levels also reflect the timing of receipts and outlays. Debates over the debt ceiling, annual appropriations, tax policy, and interest-rate dynamics are central to recent discussions about near-term debt trajectories. Market participants pay attention to Treasury publications and congressional action as the primary drivers of observed outcomes.
Market odds reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome bucket the official Treasury-reported debt figure will fall into on the resolution date; they update as new information arrives but are not guarantees. Use the odds as a realtime signal about market expectations, while relying on official publications for the resolved value.
The market divides the universe of possible reported debt levels into ten discrete outcome buckets; the market resolves to the single bucket that includes the official Treasury-reported debt outstanding on April 30, 2026. Consult the market page for the exact numeric boundaries of each outcome.
This market resolves using the official U.S. Treasury publication specified in the contract terms (commonly the Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement or the 'Debt to the Penny' dataset); the exchange's resolution rules name the authoritative source to be used.
Resolution follows the reporting and dispute procedures in the exchange's rulebook: typically the figure published by the named official source for that date is used, and later statistical revisions are handled according to the platform's stated revision/dispute policy.
Key actions include passage of large appropriations or tax bills, legislation changing the debt limit or allowing extraordinary financing measures, timing adjustments to federal payments or receipts, and Treasury decisions on auction size and cash management.
Watch Congress (leadership and appropriations committees), the President and Treasury Department (including Treasury Secretary statements on cash management), and macro policy movers such as the Federal Reserve; major economic releases and emergency-response agencies can also shift the near-term debt profile.