| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how strong U.S. real GDP growth will be in the second quarter of 2026. The result matters for financial markets, policymaking, and business planning because GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity.
Quarterly GDP is compiled and published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is typically released in a sequence of estimates (advance, second, third). Q2 2026 outcomes will be evaluated in the context of recent inflation trends, labor market developments, monetary policy settings, fiscal decisions, and global demand conditions that have shaped growth entering 2026.
Prediction market prices reflect participants' collective expectations about which GDP outcome will be reported by the official BEA release specified in the market rules. Interpret prices qualitatively as the market's consensus view and monitor how prices move as new data and policy signals arrive.
The BEA issues an advance estimate roughly one month after the quarter ends, followed by second and third estimates in subsequent months; which BEA estimate the market uses will be specified in the market rules. Prices will typically concentrate and react most strongly around the BEA release tied to the market’s settlement rule.
Each outcome corresponds to a category or range for reported Q2 2026 real GDP growth as defined in the market description. Participants should consult the platform’s outcome definitions to see the exact ranges and the BEA publication that will determine settlement.
Outcome determination depends on the specific BEA estimate named in the market rules (advance, second, or third). Later BEA revisions after the specified estimate will not affect settlement unless the market explicitly references a later estimate.
Monthly indicators that signal demand and production—personal consumption expenditures, retail sales, employment (payrolls), industrial production, trade and inventory reports, and inflation measures (CPI/PCE)—are the most watched inputs; surprises in these releases typically shift expectations for the BEA number.
Active participants include macro hedge funds, prop traders, economists, and informed retail traders; official sources (BEA releases), consensus forecasts from economic data providers, major banks’ macro research, Fed communications, and high-frequency indicators all feed into market pricing.