| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will report as real GDP growth for Q1 2026. The outcome matters because the official GDP print influences monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and business planning.
Q1 GDP often reflects carryover effects from the prior quarter plus seasonal patterns, inventory adjustments, and early-year consumer and business behavior. Key background drivers entering Q1 2026 include the labor market, consumer spending, business investment, trade patterns, and the stance of fiscal and monetary policy. The BEA issues advance, preliminary, and final estimates, and which release is used for settlement will be specified by the market rules.
Prediction market prices represent the collective market view of what the official Q1 2026 GDP print will be and can move rapidly as new data or policy signals arrive. Use prices as a real‑time gauge of consensus, not as a single definitive forecast.
Settlement will occur based on the official BEA release specified in the market rules; check the event page to see whether the market uses the BEA advance, preliminary, or final GDP estimate and the exact settlement timing.
There are eight mutually exclusive outcomes listed on the event page; each outcome corresponds to a specific reported category or range for Q1 2026 GDP as defined by the market—refer to the outcome labels on the platform for exact definitions.
Only the BEA release specified in the market rules determines settlement; later revisions to the BEA series matter for historical analysis but typically do not change an already-settled market unless the market explicitly ties settlement to a revised figure.
Monthly indicators such as retail sales, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), payrolls and unemployment, durable goods orders, industrial production, and trade reports are particularly influential, as are high‑frequency indicators of consumer activity and any major fiscal or policy announcements.
Participants include economists, institutional and retail traders, macro hedge funds, and algorithmic strategies; influential information sources include private forecasts, consensus analyst surveys, Fed communications, and incoming macroeconomic data releases.