| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.950 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.960 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.970 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.980 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.020 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.040 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.060 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.080 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.120 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.140 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.160 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.180 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.220 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.240 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.260 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome for 'US gas prices this week' will be realized and matters because weekly retail gasoline moves affect consumers, freight costs, and short‑term inflation expectations.
Weekly U.S. retail gasoline prices are driven by a mix of crude oil markets, refinery operations, seasonal demand shifts, and weather or geopolitical events. Historically, the largest weekly moves come after supply disruptions (refinery outages, hurricanes) or when crude markets swing sharply; otherwise changes are often modest from week to week.
Prediction market prices summarize the crowd’s current expectations about which listed outcome will obtain at settlement; they update as new data and news arrive and should be read as market-implied likelihoods rather than guarantees.
Settlement is determined by the specific benchmark and data source named in the event’s settlement rules on the exchange — commonly a published national retail gasoline series (for example, an EIA or other recognized national average). Check the event page for the authoritative settlement source and definition.
The event’s rules specify the reporting window that defines 'this week' and the market closing time; because this event lists 'Closes: TBD', confirm the exact cutoff and timezone on the platform before trading so you know which daily reports and news fall inside the settlement window.
The EIA weekly petroleum status report and API weekly estimates are the most closely watched regular releases, along with any scheduled refinery maintenance updates, DOE announcements, or widely reported inventory changes that occur before the event’s settlement cutoff.
If the market settles to a national average series, regional variations and state tax differences are aggregated into that national figure and won’t be reflected separately; local spikes can still influence the national average if they are large or affect major consumption areas.
It depends on timing: a hurricane that causes outages or distribution disruptions before the market’s reporting cutoff can meaningfully alter the weekly average and therefore the settled outcome; if it occurs after the cutoff or its effects are not captured in the published series used for settlement, it may not be reflected.