| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.730 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.550 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.740 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.070 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.270 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.910 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.230 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.790 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.690 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.710 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.650 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.700 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.630 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.670 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.150 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.660 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.470 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.610 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.510 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.720 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.750 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.830 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.190 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.110 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.870 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.680 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.590 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.950 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on the national average retail price of gasoline in the U.S. for the coming week; outcomes correspond to specific price ranges. It matters because weekly retail fuel prices affect consumer budgets, transportation costs, and short-term inflation signals.
Weekly U.S. gasoline prices move in response to crude oil markets, refinery production and outages, inventory levels, and shifts in seasonal demand. Historical patterns show seasonal upward pressure in spring/summer and potential dips in winter, but short-term volatility can be driven by weather, supply disruptions, or policy moves. Markets like this aggregate trader expectations about those drivers into a set of mutually exclusive outcomes.
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd's current view about which price-range outcome will settle and update as new information arrives. Treat market odds as a real-time, tradable summary of expectations, not guarantees; combine them with official data and fundamentals when forming a view.
Each of the 21 outcomes corresponds to a specific national average retail price range (a price 'bin') for regular gasoline during the settlement period; the market page and contract terms list the exact labels and numeric boundaries that determine which bin will settle.
'Closes: TBD' means the final trading deadline has not yet been published; trading remains open until Kalshi posts the official close time, and that timing can affect access to last-minute liquidity and the ability to react to late-breaking news—monitor the market page and platform alerts for updates.
The event's contract terms specify the primary settlement source (for example, a named government or industry dataset) and the exact timing used to determine the final price; check the market's rules on Kalshi to see the authoritative data series and settlement procedure.
Total volume shows how much money has been traded across outcomes to date and is a rough indicator of market participation and liquidity; higher volume generally means easier execution and faster incorporation of new information, but volume levels can change rapidly.
Unexpected developments—such as sudden refinery outages, major supply disruptions, extreme weather, or policy announcements—can shift the expected national average price and move market prices between outcome bins; traders typically adjust positions as such information becomes known, so intraday movement can be informative about shifting expectations.