| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.2% | 70% | 70¢ | 71¢ | — | $97K | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 15% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $45K | Trade → |
| Above 4.1% | 93% | 92¢ | 94¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Above 4.3% | 47% | 46¢ | 47¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 5% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Above 4.6% | 1% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Above 4.7% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
This market centers on the official U.S. unemployment reading for February 2026 and matters because that headline number is a widely watched snapshot of labor-market health that influences monetary policy, financial markets, and business planning.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly unemployment rate based on the household survey; the February figure reflects hiring, layoffs, and participation patterns observed during that month. Monthly unemployment readings are interpreted alongside payrolls, claims, and participation data to form a fuller picture of labor-market momentum and can alter expectations for Fed policy and economic growth.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about the value the BLS will publish for February 2026 and update as new information arrives. Always check the event’s settlement rules to confirm which official series and publication the market uses.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics normally publishes the monthly employment situation — including the February unemployment rate — on the first Friday of March; this market typically settles based on the BLS publication specified in the event rules, so compare the event’s timeline and close time to that release.
Most events of this type settle to the BLS headline unemployment rate (U‑3) as published for the month, but you must confirm the contract’s settlement text on the event page to be certain which series is used.
Markets generally settle to the value as first published by the specified official source; whether later revisions change settlement depends on the event’s explicit settlement rules, so check those rules for this market.
Watch weekly initial jobless claims, private payroll estimates (e.g., ADP-type releases), JOLTS and other labor-market indicators, PMIs and growth releases that signal hiring strength, and any large public or private layoff announcements that could influence expectations for the February BLS report.
The BLS applies seasonal adjustments to remove predictable calendar patterns; because February follows January and contains fewer business days, seasonal factors and atypical events (unusual weather, holiday timing, or a leap-year effect) can materially shift the headline rate relative to raw counts, so traders factor those adjustments into their expectations.