| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.955 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.960 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.965 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.970 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.975 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.980 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.985 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.995 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the US national average retail gasoline price will fall into on Mar 29, 2026. It matters because pump prices influence household budgets, short-term consumer spending, and near-term inflation measures.
US retail gasoline prices are driven by a mix of global crude oil markets, domestic refining capacity and outages, inventory levels, and seasonal fuel-blend requirements. Historically prices show seasonal patterns—spring refinery maintenance and the switch to summer-grade gasoline often change price dynamics—and they remain sensitive to geopolitical events and major weather disruptions.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about the most likely level or range for the national average price on the settlement date. Use those prices as a real-time signal of sentiment and incoming information about supply, demand, and policy, not as a guaranteed outcome.
The event's settlement rules on the Kalshi event page specify the precise data source and definition used for settlement (for example, an EIA, AAA, or other named national average and the observation time). Check that text to see which official series and timestamp will be used.
The event listing currently shows 'Closes: TBD.' Market closing times are posted on the event page and are often set to a specific UTC timestamp or to shortly before the official observation window—watch the market page for updates.
Key patterns include the late-winter/early-spring refinery maintenance cycle, the spring switch toward summer gasoline blends, and typical seasonal demand shifts such as increases in travel; recent multi-week trends in crude and inventory data are also highly informative.
Regional disruptions matter to the extent they move the national aggregate used for settlement. Local outages in large-population or supply-hub states can disproportionately affect the national average, while isolated small-market changes may have minimal impact.
Settlement handling of revisions depends on the event's stated policy. Some markets use the first official published figure for the date of observation, while others follow the final revised series. Consult the event's settlement provisions on the Kalshi page to see which rule applies.