| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.955 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.960 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.965 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.970 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.975 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.980 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.985 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.995 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will match the US retail gasoline price on March 28, 2026; it matters because retail fuel prices influence household budgets, transportation costs, and broader inflation readings. Traders and observers use it to express expectations about oil, refining, and demand developments ahead of that date.
Gasoline prices are set at the intersection of crude oil costs, refining output and quality changes, inventory levels, and seasonal demand shifts. Since the 2010s, faster US shale supply response and periodic OPEC+ production decisions have added volatility; refinery maintenance cycles and regulatory changes remain recurring drivers around spring. Short-term weather, shipping disruptions, and government data releases often produce rapid price moves in the weeks before a reference date like March 28, 2026.
Market odds reflect the collective, up-to-the-minute expectations of participants and move as new information arrives; they indicate market sentiment rather than a guaranteed outcome. Use odds as a dynamic signal that combines supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical news flows relevant to the March 28, 2026 reference date.
The event will settle to the specific US gasoline price series and source defined in the market's settlement rules; consult the event page for the named publisher (for example, a national average retail price published by the authority listed) and any rounding or timing conventions.
The market close time and settlement timeline are specified on the event page (the prompt lists the close as TBD); settlement occurs after the referenced data for March 28, 2026 are published by the named data source, according to the market's published rules.
Late March often coincides with refiner transitions to summer-grade gasoline and the start of higher spring driving demand, both of which can tighten supply and raise retail prices relative to winter levels; planned refinery maintenance in the period can also reduce output and amplify moves.
Large producers and exporters (including OPEC+ decisions), US shale producers, refiners managing capacity and product slates, commodity traders/speculators, and government reporting agencies (DOE/EIA) whose inventory and price data influence expectations.
Treat such events as information shocks that change the supply/demand outlook and therefore market-implied expectations; monitor official damage reports, inventory releases, and policy statements—markets typically reprice quickly as the magnitude and persistence of the disruption become clearer.