| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.965 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.970 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.975 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.980 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.985 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.995 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.005 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.010 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which price-range outcome the national U.S. retail gasoline price will fall into on March 27, 2026. It matters because gasoline prices affect consumer spending, transportation costs, inflation signals, and short-term policy and market decisions.
Retail US gasoline prices reflect crude oil costs, refining margins, taxes, seasonal blend changes, and local distribution constraints. Late March is a transitional period ahead of the summer driving season when refinery turnarounds, summer-blend switching, and changing demand patterns can produce price moves; historical volatility also stems from weather, supply disruptions, and geopolitical events.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views and update as new information arrives; treat them as a real-time market-implied expectation rather than a guaranteed forecast. For this contract, interpret odds as the collective assessment of which price-range outcome is most likely given current information.
The market's contract rules on the Kalshi event page specify the official settlement source and measurement (for example, a published national retail price series from an agency or private reporter). Consult that rule text to see which public dataset and precise timestamp will be used for settlement.
The event page lists the market close time and settlement schedule; currently the close is listed as TBD. Final outcome is determined after the specified reporting source publishes the price for March 27, 2026 or at the contract's defined settlement timestamp—see the contract rules for exact timing.
Each of the ten outcomes corresponds to a discrete price range (a bucket) defined in the contract. Once the official settlement price for March 27, 2026 is published by the specified source, find which bucket contains that value; settlement rules also describe rounding and tie-breaking procedures.
Rapid upward pressure could come from large crude-supply disruptions, unexpected refinery outages or contamination events, major geopolitical escalations affecting oil supply, or sudden increases in seasonal demand driven by earlier-than-expected travel patterns.
Traders on Kalshi (retail participants, institutional traders, hedgers, and speculators) set the market prices in response to news. The settlement depends on the official data reporter named in the contract (commonly agencies or industry reporting services); upstream actors—oil producers, refiners, and policymakers—drive the underlying fundamentals that those reporters capture.