| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.975 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.005 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.980 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.995 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.015 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.985 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.990 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.010 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.970 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on the level of average US retail gasoline prices on March 26, 2026, offering a way to hedge or speculate on short-term fuel cost movements. It matters because retail gasoline prices affect consumer spending, transportation costs, and inflation measures.
Retail gasoline prices are driven primarily by crude oil costs, refinery throughput and seasonal fuel blends, and have historically shown meaningful movement around refinery maintenance cycles and demand shifts in spring. Policy actions, major weather events, and international supply decisions can introduce sudden changes between now and the settlement date. Markets like this aggregate expectations about those influences into tradable outcomes.
Prediction market prices reflect collective market expectations and adjust as new information arrives; they should be read as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed forecast. Traders use price movements to infer how participants are weighing supply, demand, and policy developments ahead of March 26, 2026.
Each outcome corresponds to a specified price range or settlement condition defined in the event description; the market settles based on the contract’s published reference and the range that the official price falls into on or around March 26, 2026.
The event's closing time is set by the market operator and may be listed as TBD until finalized; the official settlement relies on the published price data tied to March 26, 2026 or the nearest available reporting period as specified in the contract rules.
The contract description specifies the official data source for settlement—common references include national average surveys or government energy reports—so check the event's settlement rules for the exact source used.
Decisions that tighten or loosen crude supply can drive global oil prices, which in turn affect refinery margins and wholesale gasoline costs; those upstream shifts typically transmit to retail prices and therefore alter expectations for the March 26 market outcome.
Low volume can mean wider spreads and less reliable price discovery, increasing execution and exit risk; traders should be cautious about position size, monitor order book depth, and confirm settlement rules before committing meaningful capital.