| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the U.S. national average retail price for regular gasoline will fall into on Election Day. It matters because gasoline prices affect household budgets and can influence voter perceptions of the economy during a major political event.
Retail gasoline prices move with crude oil costs, refining capacity, seasonal demand, supply disruptions, and policy changes. Historically, swings in fuel prices in the months leading up to an election have attracted political attention and can shift short-term consumer sentiment. This market uses multiple outcome bins to capture different possible national average price ranges on the specified date.
Market prices for each outcome reflect the collective expectations of traders about which price range will obtain on Election Day and update as new information arrives. Use the platform’s published settlement rules to understand exactly which data series and timestamp determine resolution.
The market resolves to the specific national average retail-price series and timestamp listed in the market's official rules; many markets use the U.S. national average for regular gasoline from public sources such as the EIA or nationally recognized price trackers, but you should check this market's resolution clause for the authoritative source and time.
The platform will publish a closing date and time for the market; trades must be placed before that close. If the close is listed as TBD, monitor the market page for the announced trading deadline and any changes to the schedule.
This event is based on a national aggregate measure, so regional swings feed into the national average but do not separately determine outcomes; a large regional disruption can still move the national average if it is significant enough.
Regular data releases (such as weekly petroleum inventories), major refinery outage announcements, hurricane watches, OPEC meeting outcomes, and sudden geopolitical developments are the types of items that typically drive near-term re-pricing.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined price range for the U.S. national average on Election Day; market prices across those outcomes indicate which ranges traders currently favor. Refer to the market's outcome descriptions and settlement thresholds to map each outcome to the underlying price band.