| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 300ㅤ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 500ㅤ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 700ㅤ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 900ㅤ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1100ㅤ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the total volume of commercial flight cancellations within the United States for the seven-day period concluding on April 20th at 12:00 PM EDT. It serves as a real-time barometer for aviation operational stability and the potential economic impact of widespread travel disruptions.
US aviation operations are highly sensitive to seasonal weather patterns, air traffic control staffing levels, and airline labor relations. Historical data shows that flight cancellations often spike during periods of severe weather or technical infrastructure failures, directly affecting the bottom line for major carriers and travel-related industries. Tracking these numbers provides insight into the efficiency and reliability of the national transportation network.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of whether cancellation volumes will remain low, typical for the season, or surge due to unforeseen operational failures.
The market relies on official data provided by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) or verified reports from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regarding total cancellations.
This market specifically tracks US domestic flight cancellations as reported in the relevant carrier performance data.
Only cancellations logged within the seven-day window ending at the specified time will be counted toward the final settlement total.
Cancellations occurring at any point during the week leading up to the deadline will be aggregated into the final count, regardless of the cause.
No, this market specifically monitors flight cancellations; delayed flights that eventually depart are not counted toward the cancellation total.