| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.70M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.80M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.90M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.10M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.20M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.30M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.40M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined range the National Association of Realtors' reported US existing-home sales for March 2026 will fall into. The result is a timely indicator of housing-market activity that influences mortgage markets, construction, and consumer spending expectations.
Existing-home sales measure transactions of previously owned single-family homes, condos and co-ops as reported monthly by the NAR; they are published as an annualized sales pace for the month. The housing market has been sensitive in recent years to mortgage-rate movements, inventory constraints, and broader macroeconomic conditions; the March 2026 reading will be interpreted against those ongoing trends and recent monthly prints.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views about which outcome bin will contain the official March 2026 print. Prices can move quickly as new housing- or macro-related information arrives, and they reflect the collective expectation at any given moment rather than a fixed probability.
The National Association of Realtors publishes the monthly Existing-Home Sales release on a scheduled date; for this market the outcome will be determined by the NAR release for March 2026. Check the NAR release calendar or this market's announcement for the exact publication date and time.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a predetermined numerical range for the NAR's reported annualized existing-home sales pace for March 2026. The winning outcome is the range that contains the official number published in the NAR report.
Indicators that commonly move short-term expectations for this specific release include the Pending Home Sales Index, new‑home sales, building permits and housing starts, weekly mortgage application volumes, and macro releases such as employment and inflation reports that affect mortgage-rate expectations.
This market resolves based on the official value specified in its resolution rules, typically the NAR number published in the March 2026 monthly release. Consult the market's official resolution policy to see whether later NAR revisions are considered for settlement.
Focus on data and market-moving events in the weeks immediately before the NAR release: weekly mortgage-rate reports and applications, regional sales or inventory reports, the Pending Home Sales release, and any macro announcements (jobs, CPI/PCE) that could shift interest-rate expectations in late March and early April 2026.