| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined range the US effective tariff rate will fall into for Q1 2026; it matters because the effective tariff rate is a broad indicator of trade policy and border protection costs that can affect import prices, supply chains, and sectoral competitiveness.
Effective tariff rates change when the government imposes, adjusts, or removes tariffs and trade remedies, and they can also shift with changes in the composition and value of imports. Recent years have seen a mix of tariff actions, temporary measures, and international negotiations that have produced volatility in average applied protection levels. The Q1 2026 rate will reflect any policy actions taken through the end of March 2026 plus the import mix recorded in that quarter.
Market prices on this contract represent traders' collective assessment of which outcome (tariff-rate band) will be the official value for Q1 2026; they are not the official statistic itself and will update as new policy actions and data arrive.
The contract resolves according to the official methodology and source specified in the market's settlement rules; consult the market's rulebook or contract description to see which agency, dataset, and calculation method will be used for Q1 2026.
Resolution timing follows the release schedule of the underlying source specified in the contract; typically the quarter ends on March 31, 2026, and official publication of the statistic will occur later per that source's standard reporting lag.
Each outcome maps to a predefined tariff-rate band set out in the market listing; the applicable outcome is the band that contains the published effective tariff rate per the contract's settlement methodology.
Announcements of new tariffs or tariff removals, emergency import restrictions, major trade deal breakthroughs or escalations, or unexpected large swings in import values or commodity prices could trigger rapid price changes.
Key actors include the executive branch (e.g., the President and the U.S. Trade Representative), relevant agencies (Commerce, USTR, CBP), Congress through legislation, major trading partners negotiating changes, and importers/exporters whose behavior affects import composition.