| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 850 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 900 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 700 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 800 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 950 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 650 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 750 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many US commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings will be recorded in March 2026. Outcomes provide a way to aggregate expectations about business distress during that month, which can signal broader stress in credit markets and specific sectors.
Chapter 11 is the primary US restructuring mechanism used by companies to negotiate debt relief and reorganize operations while remaining in business; its frequency moves with credit conditions, sector shocks, and corporate leverage cycles. Historical filings rise during recessions, after sectoral shocks (energy or retail), or when large borrowers face near-term maturities; conversely, fewer filings tend to coincide with easier financing and stronger consumer demand.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the March 2026 filings relative to the predefined outcome buckets; interpret prices as market sentiment about likely filing counts and related economic stress rather than exact predictions.
It refers to Chapter 11 petitions filed by business entities in US federal bankruptcy courts during the calendar month of March 2026. The market excludes consumer-only cases unless the market rules explicitly state otherwise; consult the market's settlement rules for precise inclusion criteria.
The seven outcomes are the market creator's pre-specified resolution buckets (typically ranges or categories of filing counts). Exact labels and boundaries are displayed on the market page and in the market's rulebook; those definitions determine which outcome wins at settlement.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will follow the market's published schedule. Official court reporting of monthly filing counts often arrives with a short lag after month-end (days to a few weeks), and the market will use the designated source and date in its settlement rules.
Settlement typically relies on federal bankruptcy court records or a named data vendor/aggregator specified in the market rules. Check the market's settlement documentation to confirm the exact source and any tie-breaking procedures.
Consider end-of-quarter behavior (companies timing actions around quarterly reporting), historically higher or lower activity in certain months for specific industries, concentrated corporate debt maturities, and recent macro trends; combine those patterns with current sector news and credit-market indicators when forming a view.