| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 110,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many job cuts will be reported in the Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly release for March; the result is watched as an early indicator of employer retrenchment and labor-market stress. It matters because announced layoffs can foreshadow shifts in hiring, consumer spending, and economic momentum.
Challenger has published monthly job-cut tallies for decades, tracking employer announcements of planned workforce reductions. The March reading often reflects end-of-quarter corporate decisions, sector-specific restructuring, and any major mass-layoff notices made in that month. Traders and economists use the series alongside official payroll and unemployment data to gauge trends in separations and corporate cost-cutting.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about the number (or range) of announced job cuts that will appear in Challenger's March report; movements in price during March indicate new information (company announcements, macro releases) being incorporated by traders.
Settlement will reference the Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly job-cut report for March; outcomes are determined by the figures and definitions reported in that official release per the contract rules.
The contract follows Challenger's published March report; if Challenger includes late or revised announcements in that month's release, they will affect settlement. Check the market's settlement rules for any additional cut-off or revision policies.
Yes — because the March total is the sum of announced cuts, a single very large layoff can move the monthly total enough to change the market outcome, which is why markets can be volatile around major corporate announcements.
Settlement uses Challenger’s own breakdown and definitions as presented in the March release; the report typically specifies the geographic scope of each announcement, so traders should consult the release and contract documentation to see which entries are included.
Intramonth price moves reflect incoming information—company layoff notices, earnings calls, sector reports, and macro data—and may be amplified by low liquidity; treat sudden swings as information signals but manage position size and be aware of settlement definitions.