| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.250M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.300M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.350M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.400M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.450M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.500M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.550M | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many US building permits will be recorded for March 2026; building permits are a leading indicator of future residential construction activity and matter for economic growth, employment in construction, and financial markets sensitive to housing demand.
The official building permits series is published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau/Department of Housing and Urban Development and tracks newly authorized residential construction projects. Permits typically move ahead of housing starts and have been sensitive in recent years to changes in mortgage rates, construction costs, and local permitting backlogs; March data often reflect winter-to-spring seasonal transitions and project timing. Historical volatility around policy moves and weather makes month-to-month readings informative for short-term economic outlooks.
Market odds for this contract express the collective expectation of traders about the Census Bureau's published March 2026 permits value; they update as new information arrives and should be read as a consensus signal rather than an official forecast.
The official value is published by the U.S. Census Bureau/HUD, typically in the weeks following the month in question; Kalshi settlement will be based on the official published March 2026 figure and on the timestamp and value specified in the contract terms. Check the contract for the exact settlement rule and monitor the Census release calendar for timing.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive range or categorical bucket for the Census Bureau's reported March 2026 permits value as defined in the contract. The market will resolve to the single outcome whose range contains the official published number.
Settlement will use the Census Bureau/Department of Housing and Urban Development's official Building Permits release for March 2026, per the contract's stated source and field; traders should consult the contract text for the precise table and line item used.
Watch related housing reports (housing starts, new home sales), weekly mortgage application indexes and prevailing mortgage rates, NAHB/Wells Fargo builder sentiment, local planning approvals for large projects, and macro releases—especially employment and Fed commentary—that can shift financing conditions and demand expectations.
Unexpected central bank policy moves, sudden shifts in mortgage availability or rates, major weather events that delay construction or inspections, abrupt supply-chain or labor disruptions, and large municipal zoning or permitting decisions can all cause the permits reading to diverge from current expectations.