| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 280.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 284.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 288.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 292.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 296.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 300.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 305.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 310.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 315.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 320.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 325.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. Consumer Price Index component for airline fares will print for March 2026 and matters because airline fares are a volatile CPI subcomponent that can swing short‑term inflation readings and influence travel costs and monetary policy discussion.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a monthly CPI release that includes a dedicated line for airline fares; that series often shows large month‑to‑month swings driven by seasonal travel, capacity and fuel costs. Recent years have seen changes in demand patterns, route networks, and cost structures for carriers, all of which can affect the March reading relative to prior months.
Prediction‑market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which predefined outcome will match the BLS release for airline fares in March 2026; treat prices as a market signal that updates with new information rather than a deterministic forecast.
The BLS typically publishes the CPI for a given month in the second or third week of the following month; consult the BLS release calendar for the exact March 2026 publication date. This market’s official close time is listed on the platform as TBD — monitor the event page for the platform’s announced closing time, which may align with or shortly precede the BLS release.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive, predefined category or range for the airline fares CPI value for March 2026 as defined on the event page; together they cover the possible published values and only one outcome will be declared the winner at settlement. Check the event description on the platform for the exact labels and numeric boundaries of those six outcomes.
Settlement will use the value specified in the event rules — typically the BLS‑published CPI component for airline fares for March 2026 included in the monthly CPI release. Refer to the event's settlement rules for the exact BLS series name and whether the market uses the seasonally adjusted or not‑seasonally adjusted series.
Key drivers include jet fuel costs and hedging, spring travel demand patterns and booking behavior, carrier capacity and fleet deployment decisions, fare promotions and distribution changes, and any operational disruptions or labor disputes that affect load factors and last‑minute pricing.
Markets settle according to the value and timing specified in the event’s official settlement rules; some markets use the initial BLS release while others specify a particular version of the series. Check the event’s settlement clause to see whether later BLS revisions would affect the settled outcome.