| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which unemployment-rate outcome will be reported for October 2026; it matters because the unemployment rate is a widely watched indicator of labor market health and can influence financial markets and policy decisions.
The unemployment rate measures the share of people actively looking for work who are unemployed, as published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Trends since 2020, cyclical swings, and policy responses from central banks and governments shape expectations for October 2026 and affect how traders price this market.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated beliefs about the official October 2026 unemployment-rate reading; treat prices as a dynamic summary of forward-looking information rather than a fixed forecast.
Resolution will be tied to the official unemployment-rate figure for October 2026 as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly Employment Situation release, subject to Kalshi's stated resolution rules on the event page.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution will occur after the BLS publishes the October 2026 Employment Situation. Check this Kalshi market page for the exact close time and any platform-specific timing rules.
The 23 outcomes correspond to discrete numerical ranges or bins of the reported unemployment rate for October 2026, so each outcome pays if the official rate falls within its specified interval when the market resolves.
Watch monthly jobs reports, initial-claims data, major corporate layoff announcements, shifts in labor-force participation, and central-bank policy statements—each can change expectations for the October reading and thus market prices.
Use past October readings, recent trends, and the pattern of BLS revisions to assess plausible ranges; factor in whether the labor market has been trending tighter or looser and how seasonal adjustments have behaved in prior years.