| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which of 23 listed outcomes will match the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 as reported by the official statistical release. It matters because the unemployment rate is a core gauge of labor-market health that influences monetary policy, financial markets, and business planning.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the unemployment rate monthly in the Employment Situation report, typically released in early December for the November reference month. By Nov 2026 the reading will reflect the interaction of post‑pandemic labor-market adjustments, recent monetary policy decisions, and cyclical conditions. Seasonal factors and one‑off events (large strikes, natural disasters, major corporate actions) can produce meaningful deviations from prior-month trends.
Prediction market odds summarize trader consensus about which listed outcome will match the official November 2026 release; use them as a real‑time signal of market expectations rather than a deterministic forecast. Always check the event page for the market’s specified settlement source and cut‑off times.
The BLS usually publishes the November unemployment rate in the Employment Situation report released in early December (commonly the first Friday). This market will settle according to the official release and timing specified on the event page, so consult the market rules for the exact settlement timestamp.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific unemployment‑rate bucket or value as labeled on the market page; review those outcome labels to understand the exact intervals or values traders are choosing between.
Markets like this typically use the official unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report unless the event page names a different source—confirm the designated settlement source on the event page.
Most prediction markets settle on the initial official release specified in their rules; subsequent BLS revisions generally do not affect settlement unless the market explicitly states it will use a revised figure—check the settlement policy on the event page.
Monitor October and early November nonfarm payrolls, weekly initial jobless claims, ADP or private payroll estimates, state unemployment claims, payroll withholding data, labor‑force participation trends, and any major employer announcements or economic shocks that could alter employment in the run‑up to the November reference month.