| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which level the U.S. unemployment rate will be reported at for May 2026; that headline figure is a key snapshot of labor-market strength and influences financial markets and policy discussions.
The official unemployment rate is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Employment Situation report, based on the household survey (CPS). May readings reflect hiring and participation decisions that follow April activity and typical seasonal adjustments, and they arrive amid broader trends in growth, inflation, and labor demand.
Market prices convey the collective assessment of which reported value the BLS will publish for May 2026; interpret moves as changing information and sentiment, not as guarantees of the official outcome.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report, which typically appears on the first Friday of the month following the survey month (so the May figure is released in early June); consult the BLS release calendar for the exact date.
This market references the national unemployment rate as produced by the BLS household survey (the CPS) for May 2026; check the market's rules page for details on seasonal adjustment, rounding, and settlement criteria.
Settlement is based on the official published number specified in the market rules at the time of settlement; in most cases later revisions do not alter outcomes unless the market's settlement policy explicitly allows revision-based adjustments—read the event’s settlement rules to confirm.
Weekly initial jobless claims, ADP or private payroll estimates, ISM and payrolls releases for prior months, major corporate hiring or layoff announcements, and central bank communications can all shift expectations for the May unemployment rate.
Participants often include individual traders, macro strategists, economists, and short-term speculators; when total traded volume is small, prices can be more volatile and sensitive to single large bets or new information, so exercise caution and check liquidity before placing large positions.