| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks what the officially reported U.S. unemployment rate for March 2026 will be; that figure is a core gauge of labor-market health and influences monetary policy, markets, and business decisions. The market aggregates trader expectations about the upcoming BLS employment report, offering a real-time view of consensus and uncertainty.
The official monthly unemployment rate is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation report and refers to the civilian U-3 unemployment rate for the reference month. March readings are influenced by seasonal adjustments and by activity in payrolls, hiring, and separations during the preceding weeks. Over time, unemployment outcomes reflect cyclical forces, policy decisions, demographic shifts, and episodic shocks such as large layoffs or rapid hiring in key sectors.
Market prices and the distribution of outcomes reflect traders’ aggregated expectations and risk preferences rather than guaranteed forecasts; they update as new data and news arrive. Use them as a timely indicator of market sentiment about the March 2026 unemployment figure, and consult the official BLS release for the final, authoritative number.
The market settles to the official U.S. civilian unemployment rate (commonly referred to as U-3) for March 2026 as published in the BLS Employment Situation report; the winning outcome is the range that contains that published value.
Closure is listed as TBD for this market; typically, Kalshi closes markets at or shortly before the official BLS release and then settles to the published figure. Check the market page for the exact close time and any updates from the exchange.
The 23 outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive unemployment-rate ranges shown on the market page. If the published BLS value exactly equals a boundary, the exchange’s published settlement convention (inclusive/exclusive rule for boundaries) determines which outcome wins—refer to the outcome labels and settlement rules on the market.
Watch weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, private payroll estimates (e.g., ADP), month-to-date hiring announcements from large employers, regional employment reports, and high-frequency indicators (vacancy postings, payroll processor data) for signals about March labor-market momentum.
The market uses the official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate published by BLS for March 2026. BLS periodically revises past months’ data, but those revisions do not change the settlement for this market—the settlement depends on the value published for March 2026 on release. Revisions can, however, alter traders’ views about underlying trends going forward.